Market Overview
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a slight recovery, and the market capitalization for the entire market is just above 3 trillion dollars. This is as traders are hopeful for a Santa Claus rally for bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies.
This rally is expected soon, however, analysts are predicting a potential crypto market crash with the largest options expiry for cryptocurrencies set for today.
Traders have been predicting the volatility. \ For the blackrock bitcoin ETF (IBIT) options, the volatility is even larger with more than 27 billion dollars of bitcoin (BTC), ethereum (ETH), xrp (SOL), and solana (SOL) options expiring today.
Bitcoin Options Expiry And Sentiment \Accord
For bitcoin, more than 260,000 options are set to expire with, Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchanges estimating the options to be worth 2.3 billion dollars. For the overall market, the put / call ratio is 0.33. However, for the put / call ratio for the smaller time frame of 24 hours, the ratio has been increased to 1.72. This is foreseen as a sign of market crash fears.
The max pain price for BTC is currently at $95,000; however, BTC is currently trading at $89,000, which indicates a potential drawdown to this price. The bulk of the puts is at $90,000 with $90,000 being a major resistance level with a range of $80,000-$90,000. The recent trading volume has been dominated by rollover trades which creates a lot of weak volume and makes the options data a lot less reliable.
The caution among analysts is warranted. Caleb Franzen mentions the lack of *\200-day moving average*\ on the quadrant chart is strong resistance while Ted Pillows mentions a daily close above \$89,500 as a strong push to \$100,000 BTC, while a close below \$85,000 can be a potential drop to below \$80,000
*Ethereum Options and Price Outlook*
Ethereum options are currently being monitored due to the nearing expiry of *\ 1,268,000 ETH options* \ with a floating total value of \$3.77 billion. *Overall PCR* is 0.43, although with *24H PCR * at 1.26 which shows a major bearish sentiment due to the puts being greater the calls.
The maximum pain point is at \$3,000, which means there could be a pullback, and traders see \$2,950 as a significant support level. ETH is up more than \%1 and is currently trading at \$2,978, with a 24 hours trading range of \$2,891 and \$2,991. There has been more than a 30\% increase in trading volume, indicating that there will be a potential bounce back due to post expiry uncertainty.
Deribit has been stating, “Positioning reflects caution, not capitulation. Post-Expiry flows will matter more than price,” which indicates that the market is still in a cautious state.
\subsection{XRP Options expiry
Additional with XRP there are also 24,000 contracts with a notional value of \$46.25 million that expire today. While the PCR is at 0.49, it has recently risen to 1.57 which indicates bearish sentiment that is rising. The max pain point is \$2.60 which is significantly higher than the current price of XRP at \$1.87.
Traders are aiming to see the support zone at \$1.80- \$1.90. Analyst Ali Martinez forecasts a potential decrease to \$1.10 in the event that the support breaks, however the successful defense of this zone could also lead to XRP upward.
Solana (SOL) Options Outlook
As for Solana, we see that **112,000 options, worth a total of *$139.45 million*, are expiring. Market sentiment is neutral, with a *24-hour PCR of 0.81*, with a higher volume of calls relative to puts.
The max pain price for SOL is $180. SOL is up from $119 to $123.40 (+-1%), and volume has increased by 65% in the last 24 hours. Traders are monitoring BTC and ETH expiries for SOL’s next directional cue.
Conclusion
The market has most likely priced in the $27 billion in crypto options expiring. This may also be the reason for the decrease in market volatility. Solana’s market sentiment is neutral while BTC and ETH have a positive outlook and XRP is under pressure. To mitigate the risk of a large market correction, they seem to be focused on technical levels, volatility, and institutional flows.
