Bitcoin has been gaining many investors’ interests of late, especially with BTC noting an increase of over 3% today. A recent report claims that BTC could rise by 20% during the Chinese New Year, drawing from history.
This prediction is in line with increasing market optimism on the expected Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and pro-crypto regulations in the US, especially after the inauguration of Donald Trump.
Bitcoin BTC Could Experience An Upward Surge This Chinese New Year?
Matrixport claims that BTC performed positively during eleven out of the last twelve Chinese New Year holidays, yielding positive returns from trading 83% of the time.
The increase in trades within the Chinese New Year can be phenomenaly correlated with families and investors distributing cash or gifts, which in turn increases the demand for Bitcoin.
China was a key player in Bitcoin’s early history and, by the year 2014, was responsible for almost 70% of unit trading of Bitcoin. This was fueled by China’s stringent capital control policy and speculative spending alongside aggressive Bitcoin mining.
The Chinese tech industry also took an active role by constructing more mining rigs and increasing the international validation node counts.
Another interesting fact presented in this report is that Bitcoin’s momentum increases as people learn about it and purchase it. But the phenomenon of the Chinese New Year is one of the few events that accelerates this network effect.
Key Technical, Macroeconomic, and Global Influences:
A confluence of technical, macroeconomic, and global factors influences Bitcoin’s price at present. According to Matrixport, some indicators are mixed. While metrics suggest oversold support and weekly indicators show an increase, on the whole things are quite contradictory.
The macroeconomic picture is grim as well, with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive posture and limited liquidity micromanaging everything. Nevertheless, the optimism regarding the potential US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve under a pro-crypto Trump administration provides bullish justification.
Donald Trump’s pro-crypto promises during his campaign have boosted market sentiment as well as the US SEC’s decision to overturn the SAB 121 crypto accounting nonsense.
Trump’s executive order to turn the US into a crypto haven by opening a national digital asset reserve has also been extremely positive.
On another note, Matrixport comments that the slow pace of stablecoin minting following the December FOMC meeting suggests very little fiat is crossing the borders.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin funding rates are showing some signs of recovery and could mean there are breakout opportunities for prices. This balance between forces has kept Bitcoin values in a range, waiting for adequate conditions for the prices to increase to materialize.
Can Bitcoin Surpass 20% Gains In the Upcoming Chinese New Year?
Historically, the time around the Chinese New Year, which starts on 29th January, has been positive for Bitcoin. In 2022 and 2023, BTC gained 26% and 23% respectively, further reinforcing the reliability of seasonal trends.
Matrixport analysts mention this 20-day period as one of position improvement for Bitcoin, spotting accurate possibilities for long positions. Daily reversal indicators also spot some power
Marking the holiday period as an extraordinary incentive for advancement. Following historical patterns, a BTC rally of 20% is certainly achievable.
In the current global conditions, investors have advanced cautionism. The news of China selling its BTC this week has worsened the worries with a already volatile market trend.
What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?
Today, Bitcoin price increased by over 3%, bringing its cost to $105,489, and boosting trading volume by 65% to $99 billion. The cryptocurrency reached a peak price of $109K on Trump’s inauguration day, which indicates increasing trust in the market. The relative strength index currently sits at 61, which signifies strong bullish activity.
Moreover, the focus of world powers on BTC has greatly increased which, coupled with current market movements, may boost its rally even further. Further analysis indicates that Bitcoin might reach a value of $120 on further bullish market sentiment.
