Bitcoin’s price surged to $114,505 on August 4, marking a strong start to the week. Over the weekend, BTC price left a CME gap, indicating limited short-term weakness. Analysts now expect price to test key resistance levels, triggering a rally to $124,000. This bullish sentiment comes amidst surging market expectations for a September FOMC interest rate cut.
As per CME’s FedWatch tool, 87% of investors expect the Fed to make a 25-basis-point cut in September. This lowers the rate to a 4.00%–4.25% which would be the first cut since December 2024. Rate cuts have been proven to enhance the investor risk appetite, weaken the dollar, and increase the flow of capital into riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Traders often frontrun policy changes, and market watchers think Bitcoin’s rally could start even before the FOMC on September 17. This suggests that much of the movement may be priced in by the time the decision is made, and in the weeks before the meeting, much of Bitcoin’s bullish momentum may build.
Analysts still predict Bitcoin is likely to lower to the \$110,000- \$112,000 range before recovering. Bitcoin is currently facing some price pressure, and as prominent market analyst Crypto Raven noted, he sees \$118,000 as a critical resistance to further Bitcoin price advancements and could serve as a point to progress towards \$124,000. Raven’s prediction stems from his volume profile analysis. This approach identifies significant trading activity and often acts as a magnet for price movement.
Daan Crypto is in line with Raven’s prediction, and as such, he attributed the current decline to a typical early month retracement. In a tweet, he elaborated that such movements do occur, but majority of the time, it doesn’t indicate a shift in the broader bullish trajectory. Combined, both analysts suggest that the current market structure offers better chances for upside movement, especially with the right macroeconomic triggers.
Looking forward, the projections for 2025 indicate that Bitcoin may experience significant growth even prior to the end-year mark. Provided that the Fed executes the likely rate cut, coupled with improved global liquidity conditions, BTC may achieve further momentum, and break through the \$124,000 mark and set new records.
In conclusion, the following six weeks may be essential for Bitcoin’s trajectory. With rate cut probability rising to 87%, overall sentiment turning bullish, and analysts marking pivotal breakout levels, BTC targeting \$124,000 now seems very realistic, creating the conditions for a potential explosive rally towards the end of September.
