After a long period of decline, MSTR stock price seems to have stabilized, indicating that the market may be moving from aggressive selling to a more neutral trading scenario. The company is close to the release of the Q4 2025 earnings, and the downward momentum is taking a pause ahead of the report which is more critical given MicroStrategy’s huge holding of Bitcoin and the newer accounting treatment that relates reportable cryptocurrencies to cash holdings.
February 5 is the date of the Q4 2025 earnings release, and that is likely to be the most important short-term driver of the stock price. The new accounting treatment will mean that some of the Bitcoin’s fair value adjustments will be included in the income statement, and the earnings will reflect the performance of not just the software biz, but also the digital assets the company holds.
This new treatment will lead to a much different balance sheet each quarter, and a lot of focus will be given to the balance sheet which in turn will give the stock price a different valuation.
MicroStrategy holds about 712,647 Bitcoins with average acquisition costs near $76,000. This position is sensitive, as any reported profit and loss tied to MicroStrategy becomes more sensitive to the current price of Bitcoin.
Analysts project core analytics and software revenue to be in the $117–119 million range, but profit loss volatility is tied to the crypto treasury. Dominating Mstr’s headlines will be crypto treasury gains/losses, whereas, operational metrics and traditional growth will be overshadowed.
On a technical basis, MSTR stock price action suggests a potential recovery phase. Currently, shares trade at the upper boundary of the defined downward channel, which is a sign that selling pressure is weakening relative to the prior weeks.
Furthermore, the $149 price zone has become a significant support level, as buyers have consistently defended this level through breakdowns that have caused severe drops. Holding this zone suggests that supply has been exhausted, which diminishes the likelihood of a drop in price to a lower level.
The relative strength index (RSI) shows us that MSTR equities have decreased less recently than before in the interval equities were less than 30, which is viewed as oversold. This change indicates an increase in buying pressure, even though there still could be a pressure with less increase from the sell side.
For the time being, put options on MSTR will have less upside on the $149.71 that put holders will find upside pressure. For the time being, put options on MSTR will have less upside on the $149.71 that put holders will find upside pressure.
Should the support level remain held, a movement to the 200 range is expected. Should the support level remain held, a movement to the 200 range is expected. Continued movement above the 200 area could open space towards the $300 zone, representing a potential 100% increase from levels.
On a positive note, slipping below the $149 point would break the support zone. MSTR stock will have a significant change in structure in February 2026. A lack of support indicates the potential for a significant downside with no earnings report to back it in support of the declining trend.
The combination of the fundamentally driven earnings gap along with the accounting to the dictated analytics bottom support zone will provide MSTR stock with an oversold support reversal on a post spent down for the down through sideways trend. The primary decrease of the down trend from the cycle through the earnings will encompass the MSTR stock down trend from the cycle down through the sideways trend.
