XRP On-Chain Data Signals Possible Surge, Though Market Shows Bearish Trends
Once again, XRP is declining as the global crypto scene is becoming more volatile, particularly in the wake of the escalating conflict in Iran, resulting in XRP slowly trading back to $1.12, a drop of almost 5% in the last day. XRP has encountered a decline in the short-term, yet currently observable on-chain metrics show XRP is building pressure for an explosive move in the near term to $1.80-$2.00.
XRP To Binance Flows Continue To Decrease
According to the recent metrics published by CryptoQuant, XRP flows into Binance are declining, especially regarding flow volumes of greater than 1 million XRP. Exchange flows are seen as one way to measure the sell-side dynamics of the market, as flows to centralized exchanges increase sell-side pressure.
In this case, flows to Binance appear to be decreasing, demonstrating that whales are more likely to keep their holdings on exchanges rather than sell. This has become a sign of the increased optimism of larger participants in the market despite the challenges.
Generally speaking, declining market sentiment has been manifested in increased flows to exchanges of greater than 100,000 to 1 million XRP units. Notably, some have used this as an opportunity to ”sell the rips.” In this case, there isn’t a collapse in the market; the large unsubtle participants are remaining more or less active.
Reduced Selling Pressure Could Support Higher Prices
A welcome development for XRP’s medium-term forecast has been a reduction of Binance inflows. As exchange deposits decline, fewer coins are available for sale, thus lowering supply pressure in the market.
CryptoQuant noted that if Binance inflows stay low and demand increases, XRP may move towards the $1.8 to $2.0 pricing levels. Supply pressure, along with the demand, provides a reasonable opportunity for a price movement in the affirmative direction.
This may mean recent prices drops were not due to long-term investors selling. The recent price movement of XRP would appear to correlate with the greater amplitude of liquidations and a risk-off sentiment that pervades the entire cryptocurrency market.
Glassnode Data Highlights Capitulation Phase
There is further positive sentiment for the XRP price with the additional insights provided by Glassnode. The 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Profits/Losses of Realized Transactions for XRP, has dropped to 0.38 and is reflective of market capitulation.
A ratio under 1 means more market participants are realizing losses. During similar periods in other market cycles, this state of the market has defined the final stages of a market correction, prior to the beginning of a major price recovery.
Historically, this ratio has reached around 50 in early 2025, when long-term market participants and whales were selling and cashing in profits. The current state of the ratio suggests losses are being realized by short-term participants, while long-term market participants are waiting for price levels that are more favorable to re-enter the market.
XRP reversals have historically been strong when this ratio fall below 1 because whales and long-term market participants accumulate.
Analysts Optimistic Moving Forward
XRP price dropped to about $1.11 as a result of reported Ripple transfers to Binance. XRP is losing momentum, with daily trading volume down about 18%. Analysts are now awaiting important macroeconomic data like the U.S. CPI report.
Longer-term, however, there are reasons to be optimistic overall. From a long-term perspective, XRP will be in a position to set a higher low against ETH. XRP may be on the verge of trading in the $1.8 – $2.0 range.
Potential bullish catalysts will be the launch of XRP perpetual trading products on Kalshi and a significant upcoming upgrade to the XRP Ledger (XRPL).
Conclusion
While XRP is influenced by overarching mixed market sentiment and geopolitical turmoil, on-chain data is more positive. According to Glassnode, capitulation, falling Binance inflows, and declining whale selling will help mitigate risks. In the following months, XRP trading on the low range may improve with the potential to reach the $1.8 to $2.0 range.
