10 Biggest Bitcoin Halving Myths the Media Gets Wrong

Bitcoin halving is among the most hyped and most misunderstood events in the cryptocurrency space. There is a lot of speculation, particularly about the impact halving has on Bitcoin price and miner profitability. People often say, “halving causes a bull market,” or “miners can’t make a profit after a halving.” These are the type of statements that require further analysis. In this article, I will identify and explain the most common Bitcoin halving myths that are promoted by the media. Using data and analysis, I will attempt to separate fact from fiction.

What Is the Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin halving is a part of the Bitcoin algorithm that reduces the reward for miners by 50% after every 210,000 blocks. The most recent halving happened on April 20, 2024, and the reward was reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. Another halving is expected to happen in 2028, and the reward will further reduce to 1.5625 bitcoins.

When the reward reduces, the number of new bitcoins that are circulating the market reduces, but the total number of bitcoins that will ever be in circulation remains at 21 million. This is according to the rules of the Bitcoin protocol.

Key Points

Myth	Accurate Fact
Halving always boosts price	Price increases after halvings are not guaranteed; only four data points exist, and other factors (ETFs, macroeconomics) drive rallies.
Mining becomes unprofitable	Miners earn transaction fees and use efficient rigs; profitability depends on energy costs and BTC price, not halving alone.
Halving is unpredictable	It is fully predictable — coded to occur every 210,000 blocks (~4 years).
Halving directly causes bull runs	Correlation ≠ causation; demand, liquidity, and investor sentiment matter more.
Bitcoin supply is unlimited	Supply is capped at 21 million coins, enforced by protocol rules.
Halving weakens network security	Security remains strong; miners still earn fees, and hash rate adjusts dynamically.
Halving is like central bank policy	Unlike central banks, halving is automatic, transparent, and immutable.
Price cycles are proven	Only four halvings exist — too small a sample to prove cycles.
Halving eliminates miner rewards	Rewards shrink but never vanish until ~2140; miners will rely on fees afterward.
Media hype equals truth	Much coverage is narrative-driven; investors should rely on on-chain data, not hype.

1. Halving always boosts price

Each time Bitcoin’s block reward is cut, people are led to believe that Bitcoin has no choice but to increase in price. While that may be the case historically, people tend to believe that halving decreases the supply of Bitcoin making an increase in price a certainty. That is not always the case, there are so many different variables that can impact price that can be unrelated to Bitcoin.

It is natural to think that decreasing the supply of a commodity increases its value, but that is not always the case. Demand can drive price even if supply is constrained. Ultimately, decreasing Bitcoin’s supply creates a deflationary effect, but if there is no real world demand, it will be of little effect.

Key Features

1. Studies BTC price changes after each halving.
2. Looks at price changes after Bitcoin supply slows.
3. Examines price changes after each halving.
4. Looks at changes in supply vs changes in general market demand.
5. Looks at supply/demand relationship and whether supply changes drive demand.

Pros

• Shows BTC supply reducing over time.
• Shows price changes after halving – good to have.
• Good for understanding scarcity.
• Good for understanding supply/demand relationship.

Cons

• Supply changes don’t guarantee price changes.
• Doesn’t consider demand (or supply) liquidity.
• Ignores market demand, institutional demand.
• Price changes after each halving in different market conditions.

2. Mining becomes unprofitable

Although the reward for miners is cut in half, that does not mean the network has become unprofitable for miners. There are many ways for miners to increase their profitability such as becoming more efficient, or finding a cheaper source for energy. Miners will also be compensated for their work through transaction fees. While it is true the price has to be right for miners to be profitable, that does not mean Bitcoin mining is no longer a viable business.

Many people think that miners will be unable to profitably mine if the Bitcoin reward continues to diminish. The Bitcoin reward is scheduled to continue halving until the supply cap of 21 million BTC is reached.

Mining rewards will eventually be negligible; however, we know that the rewards will not need to be continuous for mining to remain profitable and that, in the long-run, the Bitcoin price will rise or Bitcoin transaction fees will cover the cost of block production.

Key Features

1. Looks at halving and its economic impacts.
2. Examines miners’ revenue changes before and after halving.
3. Considers the cost of miners’ equipment and the cost of electricity.
4. Examines changes in network hashrate and mining difficulty.
5. Examines different impacts on miners.

Pros

• Examines miner economics.
• Considers miner economic impacts.
• Examines BTC price and miner economics.
• Examines miner economics.

Cons

• Not all miners become economically unviable.
• BTC price can mitigate reward halving.
• Transaction fees can add revenue.
• Changes in mining difficulty can change mining economics.

3. Halving is unpredictable

The Bitcoin code dictates that the block reward is to be cut in half every 210,000 blocks. This schedule is transparent and allows users to easily calculate when the next halving will occur. The schedule is immutable.

Bitcoin’s schedule for reducing its block reward is far more reasonable and stable than the monetary policies of nation-state controlled central banks.

This predictability is seen as an advantage of using Bitcoin as a store of value. In fact, the only event in the Bitcoin economy that can be said to be certain is the halving event.

Key Features

1. Examines changes in mining reward and halving.
2. Examines changes in the economic value of halving.
3. Examines changes in the economic value of halving.
4. Examines changes in the economic value of halving.
5. Examines how the market responds to halving.
6. Price volatility complicates predicting outcomes.

Pros

• Distinguishes protocol rules from market behavior.
• Demonstrates why halving dates are approximate.
• Helps avoid overly confident assumptions.
• Promotes analysis of different scenarios.

Cons

• Calling halving unpredictable is inaccurate.
• Reward reduction halving is part of Bitcoin protocol.
• The historical schedule of halving is consistent.
• The remaining variable is market behavior.

4. Halving and bull runs are correlated, not directly related

There is a conventional wisdom that Bitcoin halvings “cause” bull markets. While an eventual reduction in supply certainly creates a higher degree of scarcity, a rush in adoption and investment and an improvement in the overall health of the global economy are just as likely to cause an increase in price.

There are numerous factors that contribute to bull markets including improved institutional interest and overall global inflation. Decreased Bitcoin issuance helps set the stage for an upswing, but is by no means the sole driver. Strong economics and a bullish case for investment are required for a sustainable bull run.

Key Features

1. Describes how reduced issuance can lead to supply pressure.
2. Analyzes market activity of previous cycles after halving.
3. Identifies the difference between correlation and causation.
4. Considers the issuance reduction and demand.
5. Considers the state of the economy.

Pros

• Supports why the market anticipates halvings.
• Describes the effect of diminishing supply on market liquidity.
• Supports demand for historical analysis.
• Supports the integration of protocol and market analysis.

Cons

• A halving cannot create demand.
• The state of the economy can affect market prices.
• Market prices can be affected by significant economic activity.
• The state of the economy and market activity is dominated by historical patterns.

5. Bitcoin supply is unlimited

Reporter error has contributed to the common misconception that Bitcoin has no caps on its supply. In truth, the supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21,000,000. True to its name, the supply is reduced and mined into existence.

The main source of confusion occurs when Bitcoin is evaluated next to fiat currencies. People tend to think that, like a fiat currency, which can be printed ad infinitum, Bitcoins can also be printed infinitely. The value of Bitcoins is based on the total number of coins that will ever exist.

This value is fixed and limiting, thereby protecting it from inflation. Furthermore, the issuance rate is programmed to decrease every four years, which reinforces Bitcoins’ status as a scarce commodity and reinforces the analogy to gold.

Key Features

1. Examines rules for maximum supply for Bitcoin.
2. Explains the limit of 21 million BTC.
3. Examines reduction of block issuance.
4. Examines the supply of BTC that will be issued in the future.
5. Differentiates between blocks of BTC and smaller satoshis.

Pros

• Explains the concept of scarcity for Bitcoin.
• Explains the significance of halvings and supply reduction.
• Offers a comparison of Bitcoin against inflationary fiat currencies.
• Describes the issuance schedule.

Cons

• The assertion is incorrect according to current rules governing Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin’s upper limit is designed to be 21 million.
• The rate of new issuance is halved approximately every four years.
• Changes to the supply would require a super majority decision to alter the code.

6. Halving weakens network security

Miners of the Bitcoin network safeguard the network by validating transactions. A reduction in reward is offset by transaction fees. Furthermore, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate is programmed to automatically adjust to ensure the security of the network. Therefore, smaller rewards do not compromise the security of the network.

Fixing rewards at a certain level creates a false sense of security, and is not required for the long term sustainability of the netwo7rk. The first few Halvings have not compromised the security of the network.

Key Features

1. Considers the impacts of reduced miner block subsidy.
2. Examines how reduced miner subsidies affect network security.
3. Includes transaction fees as a component of miner revenue.
4. Considers transaction fees as a component of miner revenue.
5. Considers miner participation and efficiency.

Pros

• Recognizes an important long-term security issue.
• The economics of mining are crucial.
• Demonstrates the importance of transaction fees.
• Connects the economics of mining to Proof-of-Work.

Cons

• A halving does not lead to hashrate reduction.
• MiningDifficulty adjusts with participation changes.
• A higher price of Bitcoin may protect miner economics.
• More efficient ASICs can be HSH.

7. Halving is like central bank policy

The media frequently draws comparisons between central bank policies and Bitcoin halving. There are very few similarities between the two. Central banks can and do change monetary policy to benefit the economy, and Bitcoin halving happens automatically every 210,000 blocks.

Some people confuse Bitcoin’s deflationary policy to central banks’ discretionary monetary policies. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin halving is coded and not policy, and therefore not subject to change by government or central bank actions.

Key Features

1. Relates Bitcoin’s issuance schedule to a central bank’s monetary policy.
2. Relates supply changes of a predetermined nature to policy changes of a discretionary nature.
3. Explains Bitcoin’s predetermined supply policy.
4. Relates monetary policy systems of central banks to Bitcoin.
5. Distinguishes rules of the protocol from the economic policy framework.

Pros

• Relates Bitcoin to monetary policy.
• Explains Bitcoin’s predetermined supply.
• Demonstrates the difference between predetermined and discretionary supply.
• Explains monetary scarcity.

Cons

• Bitcoin halving is not central bank policy.
• There is no central authority in Bitcoin to adjust rewards.
• Central banks can adjust policies as economies shift.
• Bitcoin subsidy reductions follow a predetermined protocol.

8. Price cycles are proven

Some people believe the data shows Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle leading into halving. While there is data showing Bitcoin has rallied following each halving, there are not enough occurrences to draw a firm conclusion.

Each of the last few halving cycles have happened during wildly different monetary policies and global events. Just because something happens a certain way multiple times does not mean that will continue.

While there are many uncertainties that drive the markets, the best thing to do may be to assume there are no concrete consequences to a Bitcoin halving.

Key Features

1. Analyzes Bitcoin price action during each halving period.
2. Finds price action patterns that repeat.
3. Calculates returns beginning at halving dates.
4. Analyzes returns that are progressively lower for each cycle.
5. Distinguishes between observed market behavior and predictive certainty.

Pros

• Price action for many cycles is available.
• Regularity of halving periods shows cyclical market behavior.
• Simplifies Bitcoin market analysis.
• Offers useful relevant information.

Cons

• Limited data because only four halvings have occurred.
• Limited data cycles.
• Each cycle has differing market conditions.
• There are no established causal connections that support the notion that halvings are causes of market cycles.

9. Halving eliminates miner rewards

While block rewards will be completely removed in approximately 2140, there will still be rewards prior to that date. Furthermore, even in the absence of block rewards, Bitcoin transactions will still need to be validated. Thus, mining will still occur in the Bitcoin network.

The gradual reduction of the rewards leads some people to believe that the Bitcoin system will function just fine without rewards. Bitcoin’s design shows that in the long-term, rewards will continue to be given to miners in order to secure the network.

 Key Features

1. Difference between the subsidy and the total mining reward is defined.
2. Describes a 50% reduction in the block subsidy.
3. Covers the reality of miner reward in the form of transaction fees.
4. Covers the gradual reduction of newly created Bitcoin.
5. Covers the gradual shift to an incentive system based on transaction fees.

Pros

• Bitcoin’s reward model is explained in depth.
• Importance of transaction fees is defined.
• The concept of halving is illustrated.
• The relationship between miner’s reward and network’s security is explained.

Cons

• Halving does not remove rewards for miners.
• Miners are issued new BTC.
• Miners do gain transaction fees.
• The subsidy will dwindle to zero in a distant future.

10. Media hype equals truth

The media often shows Bitcoin price increases following a halving event. From this, the public has started to believe that price increases of Bitcoin are solely attributed to halving events.

There are many external factors such as the economy and the demand for Bitcoin that also impact Bitcoin prices. Other on-chain analyses show that price increases are not correlated with halving events.

Thus, while a halving event occurs every four years, it should not be expected that there will be a corresponding price increase.

 Key Features

1. Investigates the media-driven halving narrative.
2. Differentiates headlines from protocol.
3. Analyzes the history to assess the accuracy of the claims.
4. Notes the unrealistic price expectations.
5. Urges users to validate claims with on-chain and market data.

Pros

• Fosters independent analysis of crypto media.
• Distinguishes claims from issuer’s price predictions.
• Cultivates on-chain and market data research.
• Lowers the focus on headlines.

Cons

• The media can overly simplify a network effect.
• Headlines can imply guaranteed price movements.
• Historical price patterns can be presented without context.
• The demand of a market can contradict a media narrative, even if it is a headline.

Bitcoin Halving: Facts vs Myths Comparison

Common Myth	What the Data/Protocol Actually Shows	Real Data / Evidence	Bottom Line
Halving always boosts Bitcoin’s price	Halving cuts new BTC issuance, but it does not guarantee price appreciation.	The April 20, 2024 halving reduced the subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Price is also affected by demand, liquidity, and macro conditions.	Lower issuance ≠ guaranteed higher price
Halving directly causes bull runs	Historical bull markets followed previous halvings, but multiple factors influenced those markets.	2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings were followed by major BTC price increases, but this historical pattern does not establish direct causation.	Correlation should not be treated as causation
Mining becomes unprofitable after every halving	A halving reduces subsidy revenue by 50%, but profitability differs by miner.	Current subsidy is 3.125 BTC/block, while miners also receive transaction fees. Electricity prices, ASIC efficiency and BTC price affect profitability.	Some miners face pressure; not all become unprofitable
The halving itself is unpredictable	The protocol rule is predictable; the exact calendar date is estimated because it depends on block production.	Halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, approximately every four years. The next is expected around 2028, at block 1,050,000.	Protocol timing is predictable; market reaction isn’t
Bitcoin has unlimited supply	Bitcoin’s protocol has a maximum supply of approximately 21 million BTC.	More than 20 million BTC had been mined by March 2026, leaving fewer than 1 million BTC to be issued.	Unlimited supply is incorrect under the current protocol
Halving eliminates miner rewards	Only the new-BTC subsidy is halved; miners continue receiving subsidy plus transaction fees.	The 2024 reward fell to 3.125 BTC/block, rather than zero. The next reduction is expected to 1.5625 BTC.	Halving reduces rewards; it doesn’t eliminate them
Halving automatically weakens network security	Lower subsidy can pressure miners, but security depends on broader mining economics and network participation.	Bitcoin’s hashrate and mining difficulty continue adjusting as mining conditions change; the subsidy alone doesn’t determine network security.	Security impact must be assessed using hashrate, difficulty and miner economics
Halving works like central-bank monetary policy	Bitcoin’s issuance reduction follows predetermined protocol rules rather than discretionary policy decisions.	The subsidy automatically halves every 210,000 blocks.	Bitcoin issuance is rule-based, not discretionary
Bitcoin’s price cycles are proven and guaranteed	Previous halving cycles show recurring patterns, but the sample is limited and market conditions differ between cycles.	The 2024 cycle has also differed from earlier cycles; Bitcoin reached a new high before the usual post-halving period in the data cited by CoinMarketCap.	Historical cycles are evidence to study, not guarantees
Media hype equals truth	Headlines often turn historical relationships into definitive claims about future prices or mining.	The protocol facts—3.125 BTC current subsidy, 21M maximum supply and 210,000-block intervals—can be verified independently of market commentary.	Verify claims against protocol and market data

Conclusion

While we can say with certainty when the next Bitcoin halving will occur, understanding its impact remains speculative. In April 2024, the mining reward will decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. The max supply of 21 million Bitcoin will also remain the same.

Decreased block rewards and supply also doesn’t guarantee increased prices or that bitcoin will become more secure. Cycles prove most helpful in speculating impacts of bitcoin halving, as previous instances have provided actionable data for next predictions.

Don’t worry about what the press has to say, as it does very little to provide analysis. Instead, look at on-chain data, like transaction fees and block rewards. Or even off-chain data like market conditions. These will better equip you to make an analysis prior to the halving.

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