Currently, all eyes in the market are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting as the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decisions on interest rates at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. With mixed signals from the economy, futures show participants expect the Fed will take an even more cautious approach, indicating that they will not change rates.
Futures are showing that there is a 97% likelihood the Fed will keep the rates the same. Similarly, Polymarket, a crypto prediction market, shows participants expect the Fed’s rate change is at 1% and more participants expect the Fed will not change rates. The consensus result is due to the latest firm economic reports, and the Fed’s decision will not ease in the near future.
Restrictions on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies do not seem to have any effective mitigating consequences, as described by former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger Ferguson in an interview with CNBC.
It has been noted that Powell’s lack of direct action will be justified by the fact that inflation will continue to exceed the Fed’s 2% target in the long run, which will reinforce the necessity of a Federal Reserve target inflation rate.
The Federal Reserve will focus on the enduring steady state of unemployment, as they have done since the Powell conference, which justified ignoring the enduring steady state of unemployment.
It will be noted that Powell’s choice conference will be justified by the lack of direct action. More than rate changes, that will be the focus of the conference as a mechanism to adjust the values of assets post conference.
Brent, a macro analyst, confirmed the absence of changes to monetary policies in a report on X. It was stated that reporters may be indirectly compelled to ask how the Fed is tapering its balance sheet and its policy with regard to Treasury bills.
It was stated that the Fed has traditionally been evasive regarding direct commentary on the currency and, as a result, there may be an absence of direct answers to questions regarding Japan’s currency and former President Trump’s statements, which are anticipated to be revived by the Fed’s comments.
They described the circumstances as a duel of silence to characterize the absence of dissenting votes as a united front, with Stephen Miran and Waller cited as dissenters, and noted that Bowman seems to be in alignment with the prevailing views.
Recently, there has also been some speculation about Powell’s future, as his tenure as chair of the Fed ends in May. Observers have noted that there has been no official guidance, but previous chairs, such as Janet Yellen, have signaled their departures months in advance, which makes any comments from Powell today especially notable.
In the Bitcoin market, there is still a lot of volatility. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin dropped after 7 of the last 8 FOMC meetings last year, with May being the only exception.
Another analyst, Mister Crypto, said that they watch for dips before meetings that then rebound. Bitcoin just recently crossed the $90,000 mark, but has fallen just below that level as of this writing. In addition to the Fed decision, today’s reports from Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta may affect sentiment in both the traditional and digital markets.
