Solana Price Prediction: SOL Dips Ahead of Alpenglow Release on October 21
Solana (SOL) price down 1.83% to $104.53 over last 24 hours as wider selling pressure hit crypto markets ahead of the Alpenglow upgrade on October 21, 2026. Market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell 1.2% to $2.73 trillion, as interest rate worries and market uncertainty weighed on prices.
Bitcoin traded around $81,000, Ethereum at about $2,425 and XRP below $1.30. The short-term weakness is not deterring investors from looking at Solana’s upcoming network upgrade for possible improvements in transaction finality and long-term network performance.Solana Alpenglow Upgrade Aims for 150-Millisecond Transaction Finality
Solana’s Alpenglow consensus upgrade will go live on October 21, 2026. The upgrade is designed to cut transaction finality from the network’s touted benchmark of 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. Given these numbers, the target implies an approximately 85x improvement in finality speed.
Alpenglow is designed to replace Solana’s current TowerBFT consensus mechanism with a new architecture that incorporates the Votor protocol. Votor allows validators to exchange votes directly and pool them into certificates, which makes blocks final in one or two rounds of voting.
Faster finality could enhance payment confirmation, trading execution and application responsiveness across the Solana ecosystem. Users will continue to sign and submit transactions from their existing wallets and apps.
Still, the 150ms figure is a performance target until the upgrade is switched on and tested under real mainnet conditions. Transaction finality is also different from block production time and it is important to distinguish between the two performance indicators.
Solana ETFs Experience $12.67M Daily Outflows
According to SoSoValue, Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of $12.67 million on October 16. Bitwise’s BSOL was the source of the reported withdrawals. The other six listed funds saw no net flows during the period.
The total trading volume was $90.03 million and the combined net assets were $1.62 billion. Net inflows on a cumulative basis remained at $1.56 billion, with ETF assets representing approximately 2.64% of Solana’s market cap.
The daily outflows suggest some caution among investors in the near term, though a single session does not constitute a sustained trend of withdrawal. Traders will likely watch subsequent ETF flows, along with SOL’s price performance, for signs of whether institutional demand is firming or fading ahead of Alpenglow launch.
Can Solana Break $105 and Reach $110? Solana Price Prediction
Solana’s short-term technical indicators are mixed on the momentum front. SOL traded at $103.98 down 0.66% in the given candle in the given 4-hour analysis The relative strength index was 42.24, below the neutral 50 level, indicating that buying momentum was still relatively weak.
Meanwhile the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) line was -0.90 above its signal line at -1.06 with 0.16 as its histogram. This setup hints at a possible improvement in immediate momentum, but it does not signal a bullish reversal.
SOL Price Prediction: $105, $110, $115 Upside Targets
A four-hour close above $105 might reinforce the recovery scenario and bring focus to $110. If buyers manage to push SOL above $110, the next potential upside target would be $115, a previously identified price-response zone.
These levels are not guarantyd results, but conditional technical targets. A broader recovery in the market and positive sentiment surrounding Alpenglow could support an upward move, though continued selling pressure may limit gains.
Solana Price Prediction: $100, $97 and $95 are Key Support Levels
On the negative side, $100 is the key support level identified in the furnished chart analysis. If the price closes below this level for four hours in a row, SOL could drop to $97, and then to the psychological support level at $95.
Keeping above $100 would keep the possibility of a recovery to $105 and $110 open. But a break under support could indicate sellers remain in control ahead of the network upgrade.# Watching Tips Before Alpenglow Launches on Solana
Solana’s near-term outlook will depend on three things: the broader crypto market’s sentiment, capital flows into ETFs, and the successful launch of Alpenglow. Traders are watching to see if SOL can reclaim $105, hold support at $100 and show better momentum as the launch approaches.
Though faster transaction finality could support Solana’s long-term network proposition, the upgrade does not guaranty an instant price hike. The next move for SOL will still be determined by market conditions and how the mainnet actually performs.
Editorial note: The data provided contains two different SOL prices: $104.53 for the 24-hour drop and $103.98 for the four-hour technical analysis. I have kept both and tagged their contexts. Please check the figures and the October 21 launch schedule against current sources before publication.
