Bitcoin, XRP Price Prediction: Are US Midterms Going to Cause Another November Crash?
With US midterm elections scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, Bitcoin and XRP price predictions are becoming a hot topic. Crypto investors have been watching market sentiment, technical indicators, institutional ETF flows and derivatives activity closely to see whether political uncertainty will trigger another market correction. Bitcoin is up over $78,000 and Ethereum has returned above $2,295.
Meanwhile, XRP is consolidating around $1.25, with buyers trying to build stronger support. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 36, suggesting cautious market sentiment, despite the recent recovery. “Some uncertainty over the next direction of the market is being created by historical election-related volatility, institutional withdrawals and weakening technical indicators.
US Midterm Elections Could Add More Uncertainty to Crypto Market
Voters in the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026 will decide the balance of power in Congress. All 435 seats in the House and all 35 seats in the Senate are up for election. Political forecasting models show Democrats about 95% likely to take control of the House, but the Senate race is much tighter.
Uncertainty around the election could impact the cryptocurrency markets as investors often re-evaluate risk exposure during major political events. There have been major corrections in cryptocurrency markets during past periods of historical midterm elections, but past market movements are no guaranty of another downturn.
Other economic developments are also affecting investor sentiment. Oil prices fell over 2% in diplomatic talks involving Iran and Qatar, adding to optimism about geopolitical conditions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has traded above its 50-week moving average for seven straight weeks. The fact that it was able to maintain this level even after the Binance security incident shows underlying market resilience.
Bitcoin and XRP are displaying varied technical setups as traders assess recovery potential and downside risks.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Break Above $82,000?
Bitcoin is trading around $78,462 after recent selling pressure. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum has not entirely dissipated.
The MACD line is near -1,131.95, below its signal line of -742.66. The histogram is still in the negative at around -389.29, suggesting selling pressure is still swaying market momentum.
Bitcoin price important levels to watch:
- Immediate support: $76,270 is an important downside level which must be defended by buyers.
- Resistance zone: $80,000–$82,000 is the first major recovery barrier.
- Bullish breakout: Sustained move above $82,000 could bolster recovery expectations.
- Resistance higher: $86,976 is another key level for the long-term Bitcoin price forecast.
A close below $76,270 could intensify selling pressure. On the upside, a clear move above the $82,000 level could improve the bullish outlook.
XRP Price Prediction: Will XRP Rally Above $1.30?
XRP is consolidating near $1.25 as buyers attempt to establish better market support. Its relative strength index, or RSI, on the daily chart is near 44, suggesting relatively weak momentum and not much buying enthusiasm.
Important XRP price levels:
- Immediate support: The key support level is $1.20.
- Resistance to rebound: Buyers need to reclaim the $1.30 level first.
- Bullish target: A successful recovery above $1.30 could open the possibility of testing $1.40.
If XRP price fails to hold the support near the $1.20 level, further selling pressure could be expected. Nonetheless, a stronger buying interest above the $1.30 level may improve the short-term recovery prospects.
Outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Trigger Fears of Market Crash
Another important factor that affects the cryptocurrency price forecasts before the elections is the institutional investment flows.
From October 26 through October 30, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $202.59 million. Fidelity’s FBTC was a big contributor to the negative weekly flow, accounting for some $166 million of these withdrawals.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Spark Concerns About Institutional Demand. The market also saw daily outflows of around $643 million following the Binance security breach, showing how negative developments can affect investment sentiment.
Ethereum spot ETFs saw even more pressure, with weekly outflows of $431.53 million. That stretched their streak of negative flows to five weeks in a row.
Ongoing withdrawals from ETFs could sap momentum for a recovery if institutional investors further reduce their exposure. But, short-term outflows do not necessarily mean that the demand for cryptocurrency will decline in the long run.Bitcoin Open Interest Crosses $53 Billion Amidst Growing Derivatives Activity
The data from Bitcoin derivatives indicates an increase in market participation, despite uncertainty regarding prices and political events in the near term.
The latest figures reflect the following changes:
| Derivatives Metric | Reported Data |
|---|---|
| Trading volume | $36.56 billion |
| Trading volume change | +47.57% |
| Open interest | $53.15 billion |
| Open interest change | +0.14% |
| Options trading volume | $1.61 billion |
| Options volume change | +33.39% |
| Options open interest | $28.71 billion |
| Options open interest change | +0.58% |
Bitcoin derivatives trading volume rose 47.57% to $36.56 billion. Open interest rose 0.14% to $53.15 billion, a modest increase in outstanding positions.
Options activity also picked up, with trading volume increasing 33.39% to $1.61 billion. Open interest in options rose 0.58% to $28.71 billion.
These figures suggest increasing participation in Bitcoin derivatives markets. But higher volume and open interest alone do not validate bullish or bearish positioning. Traders should also watch funding rates, liquidation levels and price moves to get a sense of market direction.
Will US Midterm Elections Spark Another Crypto Crash in November?
Cryptocurrencies could see volatility in the short term around the midterm elections on Nov. 3 as investors react to political uncertainty, institutional exits and shifts in the economy. Bitcoin support at $76,270 and resistance between $80,000 and $82,000 will remain important to determine its next direction. Similarly, XRP needs to break the $1.20 resistance and move above $1.30 to gain bullish momentum.
Historical election cycles conjure up fears of another November correction, but do not guaranty a repeat. ETF flows, derivative positioning, technical indicators and broader economic developments will continue to matter in determining whether Bitcoin and XRP will bounce or slump further.
Note: All prices, indicators, election forecasts and market figures above are based on the information given and should be verified against live market data before publication. Prices predictions are not results that are guaranteed.
