Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Rebounding, Gold May Drop to $4,000
Peter Brandt, the veteran trader and well-known chartist, has predicted Bitcoin’s crash to $63,000 and the subsequent drop to $58,000 when Bitcoin was trading around $90,000. Predicting price movements of BTC and gold, Brandt identifies bear market corrections and the historical significance of the four-year cycle of Bitcoin.
Regardless of Brandt’s more than 50% Bitcoin price drop prediction, he states on X, “Bitcoin may go up”. Bitcoin may result in a rebound, yet Brandt states that in the short term we should expect more Bitcoin price drops.
In the longer term, once the market has calmed, there is again a Bitcoin price increase coming. Dismissing the Bitcoin inverse head and shoulders pattern, Brandt states that “the level of charting incompetence on X and YouTube is unprecedented.”
Forecasting with Brandt considers large scale macroeconomic pressures, as well as the more bearish on-chain indicators for Bitcoin. Outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs have, in the meantime, contributed to weakness and, as a result, momentum loss.
Matrixport notes a significant development in the cryptocurrency markets, namely that Bitcoin’s dominance reflects a change. Previously, Bitcoin was characterized by a strong and ever increasing dominance.
At the moment, dominance fluctuate \b~58\%, suggesting that capital is redistributed throughout the cryptocurrency markets, rather than being concentrated in and around BTC. Bitcoin price in the meantime, is likely to be range bound or “stuck” until \b=March\ – a reflection of an underwhelming \b\resilience\ to Bitcoin, and a more bullish relative strength of the \b\other\ \b\crypto\ \b\assets\
Additionally, Brandt appears to extend his forecast to gold. His classical charting, for example, shows an abrupt decline. As per his research findings, gold is said to have completed a corrective rising wedge, which is historically bearish. Initial testing is said to be around \b4,430 in gold, with prices likely to fall as low as \b4,000.
Brandt, despite his short term bearish perspective, indicates that he is expecting stronger accumulation to follow and will be notifying his Factor Report community when he is initiating the purchase.
This is very different from how optimistic people are with the gold market now. December call options on the COMEX are very bullish – with some traders targeting between $15,000-$20,000. Currently, gold is priced at $4,950 and rising after a two-day decline. Although Brandt expects profit-taking, new supply, and tokenized gold selloffs to limit upward movement, gold is still rising.
Overall, gold is likely to experience a significant decline soon while Bitcoin is more likely to experience a quick positive change before correting again. Given the current situation for both gold and Bitcoin, both markets are subject to the same external pressures. Investors should remain cautiously optimistic for Bitcoin but defensively view gold.
