The ongoing XRP lawsuit is still pending despite the increasing speculation. The case scenario has mixed opinions regarding a possible early resolution. At the same time, industry analysts explore five scenarios for Ripple vs SEC, deepening the controversy.
XRP Lawsuit Resolution: Things To Know
In the case of Ripple, however, things are still very much up in the air. One reason for this is because experts believe settling early is highly improbable. While it is true that the U.S.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dismissed a few crypto related cases over the last couple of weeks, the Ripple vs SEC case is yet to be resolved. The XRP advocacy group on X known as All Things XRP layed out five scenarios detailing potential outcomes to the lawsuit.
In an X post, All Things XRP unveiled five possible outcomes for the protracted XRP lawsuit. The SEC either drops the appeal, sets a lesser penalty, or the appeal court reverses the decision.
Other alternatives suggest the fine is upheld but the injunction is lifted, and the SEC drops the case entirely. All of these outcomes have varying likelihoods, estimated to be between 15% and 35%.
Will US SEC Withdraw Appeal in the Ripple vs SEC Case?
In the words of All Things XRP, the SEC withdrawing their appeal under new leadership is aligned with many expert predictions and could mean relief in the Ripple case sec is fighting against.
An XRP supporter claimed the sec would impose a $125 million dollar fine and continue the ban on XRP sales by institutional investors, something that expert XYZ considers plausible but draws the line at 35% probability. These experts find the shift in policies possible, but the enduring nature of the injunction makes things difficult.
Reduced Penalty and Court Decision Reversal
As noted by All Things XRP, Ripple stands a 30% chance of negotiating a reduced penalty with the SEC. In negotiations, the $125 million penalty could potentially be settled at $75 million.
Although there are possibilities, the dissolution of the court’s injunction poses challenges. The analysts speculated that Paul Atkins would have advocated for this approach had he been confirmed as SEC Chair.
There is also potential to change Judge Analisa Torres’s ruling on XRP but that remains highly unlikely at a 20% chance. The analysts suggested the 2nd circuit might side with the SEC’s appeal view that programmatic sales of XRP would be considered securities using the Howey test. This scenario would likely impose an additional $500 million fine and expanded injunction.
These theorized scenarios illustrate the presiding tension pointed out by Jeremy Hogan and MetaLawMan that refrain from not easing the lawsuit complexity.
XRP Lawsuit Can Injunction be Lifted with Fine Upheld?
The All Things XRP shows that Ripple’s cross-appeal would maintain the judge’s $125 million Ripple fine. Additionally, Ripple may be able to persuade some court panels to remove the injunction. This position would be attainable if Ripple proves that there are no active violations of securities laws.
Importantly, this would enable institutional sales to commence. There is only a 25% likelihood for this panned outcome which relies on Ripple’s arguments convincing the court on the other issues regarding the injunction.
Ripple Vs SEC: SEC Surrenders to Ripple
With the least chances, the SEC might abandon the case against Ripple altogether which includes nullifying the fine and seeking the court’s approval to dissolve the injunction. There is almost no chance this outcome should arise in the context of a sweeping deregulatory environment. Still, it would require approval from the court, reducing the chances to 15%.
Hogan, a known lawyer, recently stated that the XRP lawsuit could face a resolution come March but with a different focus later on concerning the injunction.
