(Bitcoin Price Forecast 2026: Barclays Projects Two Fed Rate Hikes)
With Bitcoin’s price currently sitting at approximately $78,325, there is reason to believe there is a potential for further loss as the price has dipped almost approximately 3.8% since its August 28 high of $81,478. Dipping Bitcoin prices are expected due to the recent speech by Pakistan’s Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Global investors are beginning to feel anxious about persistent inflation as they now expect that the United States Federal Reserve will lean toward a tighter monetary policy in the country.
Barclays Forecasts Two Fed Rate Hikes in 2026
Barclays has issued a forecast, following Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments on inflation, expecting the Fed to hike interest rates twice in 2026. This further exerts pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin as higher interest rates amplify investor risk aversion to redeem assets perceived as more risky.
Comparatively, Warsh noted the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, remain above the Fed’s 2% target. He also noted whether the underlying inflationary pressure has improved sufficiently to warrant a more accommodative stance.
Barclays believes that Warsh has become more of a rate hike advocate as he has noted that inflation has been falling at a slower pace than what would satisfy policymakers. Both the CPI and PCE inflation has shown some signs of improvement with a marginal decline over the past three months. However, Warsh has been seen focusing on a more protracted period of 6 months to a year.
September FOMC Meeting Becomes a Key Catalyst
The Barclays forecast has been issued in the lead up to the September 16 FOMC meeting where all eyes will be on the United States’ economic activity data.
Arguably the most interesting data is that 52% of investors predict a change in interest rates after the September FOMC meeting. Meaning, 52% of investors expected rates to remain constant, and 48% expected a change. Meanwhile, CME’s Fedwatch Tool states that 61% of market participants expected a 25 basis point rate increase in September.
If expectations continue to build in favor of increasing rates, then Bitcoin will experience additional selling pressure. Investors may begin to adjust their liquidity and their overall risk exposure.
Bitcoin ETF Interest is Diminishing
Bitcoin ETFs are likely going to affect price in the near term as well. Data from SoSoValue states that from August 17 to August 28, Bitcoin ETFs had about $2.8 million in inflows.
However, on August 28, the positive trend flattened. In the wake of Warsh’s comment’s, Bitcoin ETFs had about $201 million in outflows, breaking the inflow streak of nine days.
Continued ETF outflows will likely impact Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $80K level as long as the macro environment remains uncertain.
Adding Pressure to Bitcoin’s Price
Geopolitical factors are of concern as well. A worsening of the US-Iran situation has increased market volatility and has been bullish for oil, driving the price of oil to $86, in the data I provided.
Easing in oil prices means more inflation is almost certain, and a stronger case for rate hikes will be more evident.
The combination of higher rate expectations, weaker ETF demand, oil price uncertainty, and geopolitical issues means a difficult time for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Double Bottom Signals Continued Bull Run
Despite the current macro risks, we may be seeing a double bottom formation on the Bitcoin 4-hour chart. The recent jump above the $77,382 support level shows buyers are defending the area.
The first significant level of resistance is around $79,400. If Bitcoin can organize a 4-hour close above this area, the bullish setup could be in position to push it up to the previous high at $81,470
Most of the technical indicators are mixed at this time. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51 and is slightly bullish, whereas the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is negative and bearish.
To confirm the double bottom pattern, the RSI should make a higher high.
BTC Analysis: Key Potential Levels
In the short term the price action will be dependent upon whether or not bulls can defend $79,400 or if sellers take control and push it through $77,382.
A close above $79,400 would be bullish for Bitcoin and likely push it towards $81,470. Receding below $77,382 would test the support area.
Bitcoin is currently in a mixed trading space because technical buyers are supporting the area, but macro risks are increasing due to sell-side credit flows and rate hikes.
